Dick's Picks 2024- Week 1
HELLO MY FRIEND WE MEET AGAIN. IT'S BEEN A WHILE, WHERE SHOULD WE BEGIN?
I missed you guys so much, so so much. Now that we're back, and I mean BACK, we can cheer in celebration that college football has brought us out of the dog days of summer. We are at the peak of optimism for our favorite teams and just excited to sit on our couches with multiple TVs and enjoy the ride. Recently I’ve been begged by the burnerverse to give you WINNERS. Well, luckily for you reading this; I have decided I will NOT be losing a bet this year. Straight up, not losing a bet. If I do, Ron has agreed to refund everyone exactly ZERO dollars! What a deal!
Since it’s the first blog of the season, I’m also going to give you conference WINNERS (Odds brought to you by our sponsor FanDuel, use promo code SydneySweeneysBigHonkers for $0 of free bets)
CUSA - Liberty -220 (gross)
Sun Belt - Texas State +320
Mountain West - UNLV +420
MAC - Bowling Green +550
Big 12 - Kansas State +400
ACC - NC STATE +600
DON’T TURN YOUR BACK ON THE WOLFPAC
SEC - Georgia +180 (womp womp)
I’ve been chasing that dragon from two years ago of betting TCU to win their conference and to make the playoff so I’ve decided my dragon team is NC STATE. I LOVE Grayson McCall in this offense ran by Robert Anae. Anae got the Virgina offense to click and be electric a couple years ago with Brennan Armstrong, and I think McCall can be even better. Better talent around him, better Head Coach, and better hair.
EDIT: hey guys, so uh no one watched that Western Carolina game right? I wrote the above excerpt Thursday morning and I’m finishing this Friday night. So what did we learn from the NC State game? NOTHING (maybe). It was very vanilla and with a huge game against Tennessee on deck for the pack, of course something like this would happen. Nothing more than a slight bump in the road to an ACC Championship. (I’m too deep into rooting for NC State someone plz help)
#14 Clemson vs #1 Georgia (-13.5)
We start with a potential playoff matchup when both teams make the short drive over to the Benz in Atlanta. Georgia driving to the Benz.... There’s a joke there somewhere.
Cade Klubnik has been scrutinized for his poor play and inopportune turnovers the past year and a half but in year two of Garrett Riley’s offense there should be a sign of growth there. Or at least there better be with a defense like Georgia lining up across them on Saturday.
The Georgia offense returns a heisman hopeful in that dorky looking QB Carson Beck. Who’s he going to throw the ball to? RaRa Thomas? All the Dawg beat reporters are saying Oscar Delp is looking like the next coming of JC so I’d expect to see a lot of him in matchups against some younger linebackers that aren’t Barrett Carter wearing orange
I think both defenses overpower the opposing offense and Clemson tries to play keep away with Phil Mafah. Dawgs win but we’re gonna think Dabo keeps it close to keep Tyler from Spartanburg happy.
Clemson +13.5 Under 48.5
#8 Penn State @ West Virginia
This is a sneaky amazing rivalry to pay attention to. I don’t think it gets the love it deserves. Penn State has beat that @$$ historically speaking (Nittany Lions are 49-9-2) but those Mountaineers have a heart of a CHAMPION.
Penn State is finally going to make a playoff this year. Hooray! Unless..... they don’t. It would be hilarious if James Franklin finds himself in the bubble once again as he is AWFUL against good teams.
West Virginia is not a good team. They were a team that benefitted from a whacky and crazy Big 12 last year but nothing really pops out at me about what they do well. They’re perfectly average and will be a 6-6/7-5 team.
Penn State went out and hired Kansas OC Andy Kotelnicki to aid Drew Allar after it seemed Allar would pee his pants when faced with a throw of 10 or more yards down the field. Kotelnicki should be able to scheme some things up to boost his QBs confidence but I’ll believe that Allar has taken the next step when j see it.
This game seems like a ball control smash mount grind it out type to where Penn State will dominate. I’m afraid of Penn State covering any number over a touchdown but their defense should put WVU in the dirt.
Under 50.5
#19 Miami (-2.5) @ Florida
Swampy, sweaty, nasty. That’s how I can only imagine all the jorts will be in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium by the time this game kicks off in Gainesville. We’ve got two coaches with some hot hot seats and pressure to find some type of success this season. Cristobal has to at least win 10 games and make the playoffs for his seat to cool down while Napier just needs to make a bowl.
As it pertains to this game, Cam Ward will be making his start in a Hurricane uniform after signing what I’d imagine to be a mega millions deal just for this season. Miami’s whole roster is loaded but as we saw with FSU last week, it might take some time to mold it all together.
In the blue and orange the Gators will be trotting out Graham Mertz for a second season and we’ve actually seen him be a lot better than when he was at Wisconsin. All this is for not.
I’ve seen people talk about the humidity and yeah I’m sure some players will be dropping like flies because they’re idiots and didn’t hydrate properly. Miami is also a humid place, turns out. So attrition of players should be even. The one thing I’m concerned about for Miami is playing in that stadium. Miami can’t even get a full stadium for a home game and half the ACC couldn’t fill up half of what will be in Ben Hill Griffin.
Miami by far has more talent and I think that will carry them to cover the number on the road.
Miami -2.5
#7 Notre Dame @ #20 Texas A&M (-3)
Cult vs Cult, amirite? Maybe? The mighty Fighting Irish find themselves attending midnight mass yell to find out touchdown Jesus isn’t the only to pray to. The Aggies cheer their corny little cheers as they kiss the feet of the big oil boosters for sending Jimbo Fisher packing last season with his kajillion dollar buyout.
Riley Leonard enters the fold as the former Duke QB straps it up for the Golden Domers in his inaugural Irish start. If Leonard is truly fully healthy, then he’ll be a problem this year. He’s elusive and makes enough plays with his arms to get the job done. I’m not too excited for any other pieces on this offense and usually their o-line is solid to excellent, but with Joe Alt to the league, and the injury bug hitting them already, who knows.
Texas A&M has a new leader at the helm in their old DC Mike Elko. I’ll go ahead and get ahead of this but I am a big believer in what Elko can do with the money and support from a school like A&M. He’s hired former Kansas State QB and OC, Collin Klein and oh man can he call a game. He inherits a very talented QB with Conor Weigman but he’s just that, talent. We have never seen Weigman for an extended period of time any of the last three years because he’s always in the medical tent. Sometimes it’s unfair to blame players for being injured but– and say it with me– the best ability is availability.
I once again think both defenses should outperform their opposition but with the fact this is at Kyle Field, I like to give the edge to the Aggies. Both head coaches are defensive minded so if this turns into a slugfest they should feel comfortable being conservative in some tight spots.
Texas A&M -3 Under 46.5
#23 USC vs #13 LSU (-4.5)
With all this defense talk, we should kick our feet up and enjoy a good ol’ over! These teams have been notorious for not playing defense the past few years and their offseasons have done nothing to give me pause to expect nothing but fireworks. Yeah sure both head coaches went and hired good and proven defensive coordinators, but the players are still the same. Brian Kelly has neglected the portal to try to help out that side of the ball and I’ll never trust a Lincoln Riley defense.
LSU lost heisman winner Jayden Daniels to the draft but they boast an immaculate offensive line and another gunslinger by the name of Garrett Nussmeier. If you don’t remember him, he’s the one who kept slingin’ that thang versus UGA in the SEC championship game 2 years ago.
USC has gotten some hype lately from the national pundits but I will believe when I see it. I am not a Miller Moss guy. I’d even say his performance against Louisville in the bowl was a fluke. While he still might be an above average player, he is not going to go out and light the world on fire.
So when we’re having the Sunday scaries, just crack open another beer, turn on this awesome game that’s being played in Vegas, and remember you have Monday off. OVER.
LSU -4.5 Over 64.5
OTHER PICKS
Vanderbilt +13.5 Maryland -19.5 Syracuse -17.5 Indiana -22 Georgia Southern +13 WKU/Bama over 59.5 New Mexico +31 UCLA -14 Charlotte +8.5
USM/UK under 49.5