Dick’s Picks Dec. 9-10

By: Richard Johnston

I’m hot. Hotter than hot. Steaming hot. Hotter than Ron type of hot. I’ve brought glory to this blog by the end of conference championship week and now we embark on a new journey of strictly NFL games until bowl season. This week is going to be a test run for the amount of featured games that will be picked and if it needs to be shortened to 5 instead of the usual 10 we see. Let’s stay hot. Hotter than Harry potentially eating 22 boiled hotdogs as a fantasy punishment type of hot. Recap:

Oregon -9.5 ❌ - My glorious king Bo Nix had his crown snatched from him by the Big Penix Energy. When Oregon went up 24-20, the cover was looking sneaky but Washington was just better.

Texas -15  ✅ - Never a doubt. After seeing 35 points in the first half by the Longhorns, I promptly took my dog on a walk because I’m a good pseudo-husband.

Alabama +5.5 ✅   Over 55.5 ❌ - WOW, was not expecting this result. Georgia looked like a different team after the first quarter.

Michigan -22 ✅  Iowa TT u6.5 ✅   Deacon Hill u104.5 yards ❌ - 2-1 looks good on paper but what’s disgusting is seeing Deacon Hill get over his yardage mark with 2 minutes left in the game. I’ll never forget you, 2023 Iowa </3

Florida State -1.5 ✅ - While this game was brutal to watch, Mike Norvell and his staff put together an awesome plan to stop one of the best play callers in college football in Jeff Brohm. Having an amazing pass rush helps too. (FSU got screwed out of the 4 spot)

Titans +1 ❌  Over 42.5 ✅ - Splitting these hurt like not getting the 3-0 in he B1G game. Tennessee missed an XP late to take the lead and avoid OT. Brutal.

Cardinals +6.5 ✅ - My buddies asked me for a lock last Sunday and I told them it was this play. Proud to announce I am now heralded as a god amongst my peers. The Steelers are so bad it’s mind boggling that they are 7-5.

Broncos +3 ❌  Under 47.5 ✅  - Maybe I was too gungho on the ponies, maybe they stink? Probably somewhere in the middle. We march on with the Ponies in the Playoffs campaign.

49ers (1H) -1.5 ✅  Eagles (game) +3 ❌  - As much as I hate splitting games, I’m just happy I didn’t go 0-2 on these. I tried to get cute and middle the bets but I’m kicking myself for not loading up on San Fran. March.

Chiefs -6 ❌ - Trends and stats were pointing towards Green Bay covering the number but sheesh for KC to lay an egg on the road is a tough pill to swallow. Trouble in paradise for Taylor’s boyfriend?

Featured Games Record:   9-7

This week’s total record:   14-8

Overall Record:   125-122-4  (50.6%)

This week’s Outright Dog Record: 1-1    +1.4u

Overall Outright Dog Record: 12-14    +2.75u

Army (-2.5) vs Navy

O/u: 27.5

One of the greatest rivalries in college football takes the stage in Foxboro and much like most Patriots games this season, I am going to bet the under. It’s almost too mainstream to be betting unders in the service academy games but who cares? It’s a tradition at this point. Besides the trends, these offenses have struggled this year and the extra rest probably won’t do them any favors. 

Under 27.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

O/u: 41

The feeling I get when I see this game is that one team is trending up and the other is trending down. With a one game lead on the division, the Falcons feel like they are miles ahead of the Bucs and Saints. For fellow friend Rick, I hope he’s enjoying being a Falcons/Bucs follower for the current year but maybe Desmond Ridder doesn’t turn the ball a million times and the birds play a clean game for once? Probably too much to ask. Some dork stats that I’m following: Atlanta has covered the last two games and both teams have had 7 out of their last 10 go under.

Falcons -1.5   Under 41

Detroit Lions (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears

O/u: 43

It’s going to be a coooold day in Chi-town with a high of 38. You know what they call that? Bear weather. The line being this short is what’s causing me to back the bears plus I still don’t trust the Detroit defense with any type of lead. Justin Fields is poised to go off at some point and show a flash of the guybesides all the bubble screens and short passes they showed in the win over Minnesota. Think Chicago sneaks in the backdoor late. 

Bears +3.5    Over 43

Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)

O/u: 44

Before the Monday night game where the Bengals shocked Jacksonville, I knew what I was going to do in this game. I love backing Minshew and Shane Steichen has really impressed me in his first year. Now, I don’t know! It seems the oddsmakers also don’t know because the line has flipped from the Colts being a slight favorite to Cincinnati being a favorite. A smart man would follow this line movement and take the bengal cats. A SMARTER man (like myself) will think the line has moved too far and stick with the Colts. Go other Ponies!

Colts +1.5    Over 44

Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens (-7.5)

O/u: 40

This is smelly. The spread is stinky at 7.5 and is begging people to take the Rams. A west coast team traveling east never sits with me well and even more so after learning Lamar Jackson bludgeons NFC teams. This matchup is just bad for the Rams.

Ravens -7.5

Minnesota Vikings (-3) @ Las Vegas Raiders

O/u: 40.5

Minnesota is coming off a devastating loss and now have to go to Sin City to battle the Rrrrraiderrrrs. Josh Dobbs is getting the nod again after the bye week and they get Justin Jefferson back off the IR as well. These signs point towards the Vikes BUT I think we finally saw the real Josh Dobbs. He won’t throw 4 picks again but he also won’t be the superstar people were making him out to be a few weeks ago. Aiden O’Connell has managed the offense very well for a rookie and I think they'll do enough to even win this game. I also like the under here with both teams having 8 out of their last 10 go undah.

Raiders +3   Under 40.5

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-10.5)

O/u: 46.5

Seattle came out and shocked the world by putting up a fight against the Cowboys and now they have to make their way south to San Fran after seeing the Niners kick the absolute crap out of the Eagles. Pete Carroll has evil mastermind energy but it’s hard to go against the machine in red and gold. 

49ers -10.5

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City (-1.5)

O/u: 49

The line for this one has shrunken down to 1.5 from 2.5 but this is a gotta-have-it spot for Buffalo. If they want to have a chance to get to the playoffs, they need to go into Arrowhead and beat Taylor’s boyfriend. Also, I don’t hate Travis Kelce, but I like the schtick of calling him Tay Tay’s boyfriend. 

Bills +1.5

Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

O/u: 44

Me and Sean Payton have been in bed for a while now. I’m addicted to betting the Broncos. I can’t stop and I won’t stop. The Chargers are a dead man walking and Justin Herbert is waiting for the season to end sooner rather than later. No matter how good Herbert plays, something on that team will let him down. I’m going to bank on that happening again. Ponies!

Broncos +2.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)

O/u: 51.5 

Congrats on the NFL for scheduling the people a good primetime game. We deserve it. Take some time to look at the person next to you and tell them, “Hey, you deserve this pal.” Get your popcorn ready , there are going to be fireworks all over the field. I think both these defenses have been able to mask how bad they’ve actually been with how good their counterparts on offense have been. Two frontrunners for MVP in a shootout, who isn’t excited about that? I think the Eagles will still be able to score but they need another week to get themselves together for the playoffs. The Cowboys will still probably screw up sometime during the rest of the season to be able to lose the division but the Pokes at home continue to dominate. 

Cowboys -3.5     Over 51.5

Other Plays

Outright Dogs

Denver +120