Dick’s Picks Dec.1-4

By: Richard Johnston

People! Listen up! I’m not venmo’ing ANYONE this week. This blog was at 61% last week. We’re slowly but surely making our way to .500 for the year and of course once we get hot, the season ends. Heads up, I kind of hate the underdogs in college this week. LET’S STAY HOT, here’s a recap.

Mississippi State +10 🅿️ - Bulldogs had chances to win outright, we’ll see if Will Rogers will still transfer with Jeff Lebby coming to Starkville.

Oregon -13.5 ✅ - Bo Nix looks awesome, completely different player than I ever saw when he was wearing blue and orange. Oregon is looking to make a statement against a struggling Washington squad this week.

Ohio State +3.5 ❌  Under 46❌ - I should’ve looked at the recent games and seen the over coming. I don’t regret betting OSU, these teams seemed to be pretty even.

Auburn +14.5 ✅ - Great teams cover, right? Not surprising that an Auburn team ripped my heart out again.

Florida State -6.5 ✅ - Got a nice late score to cover but like I said last week, it was an ugly sloppy game.

Lions -7.5 ❌ - Detroit was in La La Land, apparently. Don’t really like where this team has been trending recently with all the turnovers and bad defensive performances.

Jaguars -1.5 ✅ - TLaw has been playing out of his mind lately but love the future for both franchises. 

Falcons PK ✅  Under 42.5 ✅ - Little more exciting than what I thought it would be but alas, the under still hits. Atlanta’s remaining schedule is ridiculously easy so if they don’t win the division then this season should be a failure.

Broncos -2.5  ✅ Under 35❌ - Russ cooked, too much. There were too many points, but Can I interest anyone in Denver to make the yoffs???

Eagles -3.5 ❌ Over 48.5 ✅ - I knew it was too good to be true when it was 28-24 and I was looking to be on the right side of the hook. I also didn’t realize the weather was going to be this bad or I wouldn’t have take the over but that didn’t stop Josh Allen from attempting 51 passes and the Eagles mounting a double digit comeback in the second half.

Featured Games Record:   8-5-1

This week’s total record:   16-10-1

Overall Record:   111-114-4

This week’s Outright Dog Record: 1-2    -.85u

Overall Outright Dog Record: 11-13    +1.35u

Oregon (-9.5) vs Washington

O/u: 65.5

Quack quack! This seems like an easy play. Almost too easy, so I should take the other side. Except I’m not. I don’t trust Washington as far as I can throw them at the moment. I actually have a future on the Huskies to win the conference from before the year but I have to lay the points with the Ducks and my king Bo Nix (I miss you Bo). Penix still looks hurt to me and only Odunze has been consistent at the receiver position. Too many things look out of whack for me to trust Washington.

Oregon -9.5

Oklahoma State vs Texas (-15)

O/u: 55.5

One of the bigger surprises on this championship weekend has been Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State Cowboys. If the feel good story didn’t end in Orlando when UCF demolished Ok St 45-3 then it sure is going to end on Saturday afternoon. Oklahoma State’s run game is what has carried them this year but do you know what Texas does well? Stop the run. Their defensive lineman are on par with an elite SEC team and I expect them to show out and keep Ollie Gordon in check. 

Texas -15

Georgia (-5.5) vs Alabama

O/u: 55.5

Another chapter in the Saban v Smart series is set to begin in downtown Atlanta as the two most annoying fan bases flock to the Benz.  Jalen Milroe grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat last week and sent me spiraling as I kept wondering how in the world that 4th down play happened. I didn’t watch any of Georgia’s game but I imagine the game plan was very vanilla and they sat some key players in preparation for Alabama. Carson Beck has been outstanding all year long and if he is actually considering declaring for the draft, then he will need to light the tide defense up and continue to feed Brock Bowers any moment he can. On the other side, Milroe will have to be a superhero again for the Tide to win but I still think this number is too big even after a little line movement towards Alabama. Loving both offenses either way.

Alabama +5.5      Over 55.5

Iowa vs Michigan (-22)

O/u: 35.5

Truth be told, I’m mad. I’m upset. I’m upset because Iowa isn’t playing another Big Ten West opponent this week so I can’t blindly fire an under and bask in the glory of what the Hawkeyes do on offense. Seeing what the numbers are for the spread and total almost makes you feel bad for Iowa. How in the world did they get TEN (10) wins! I watched more of this team then I probably should have but at some point their games get so ugly that they end up being beautiful pieces of art that deserve to be shown off to the masses. 

Anywho, Michigan is going to wax Iowa in a snoozer but the Wolverines have their eyes on a bigger prize than winning the Big Ten. 

Michigan -22       Iowa Team Total under 6.5       Iowa QB Deacon Hill under 104.5 passing yards

Louisville vs Florida State (-1.5)

O/u: 46.5

Recent rumors have been swirling that backup QB Tate Rodemaker, who had taken over for the injured Jordan Travis, is a gametime decision for what would presumably be a win and get in game against Louisville. In a vacuum, I don’t know how much that would actually affect my decision to still take Florida State in this game. There really isn’t that much dropoff between Rodemaker and Brock Glenn to me. Now outside of a vacuum, this is the biggest game for Florida State since getting blown out by Marcus Mariota and Oregon in the first round of the inaugural CFP back in 2014/2015. I still really like Florida State’s edge rushers and the rest of their defense to get the job done and lean on Trey Benson and the run game to ride into victory and into the playoffs. Noles! (FSU did the chop first, Braves fans.)

Florida State -1.5

Indianapolis Colts (-1)  @ Tennessee Titans

O/u: 42.5

The Titans are a bad team, why are they only a 1 point dog at home? This smells like a Vrable special to me. I’ll trust him and see if Gardner can toss a couple picks to help out Tennessee as well.

Titans +1    Over 42.5

Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

O/u: 41

We all love Mike Tomlin as an underdog but what happens when he’s a favorite? He is 85-94-2 (47.5%) all time as a favorite. Even with the firing of Matt Canada I still think this Steelers team is boring so therefore I will bet on the team that has some weapons and a fun QB.

Cardinals +6.5

Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans (-3)

O/u: 47.5

I can’t get enough of the Broncos right now! Probably too much but the turnaround we've seen from the entire team has been phenomenal. On the other sideline is another story that has taken the league by storm and it’s the young gun Texans. If you’re a StroudBoy, standby please, but don’t be shocked if there is a little drop off towards the end of the season with some of these younger players hitting a rookie wall. Now I don’t necessarily see that happening too quickly but if there is a drop in production, I wouldn’t be shocked. Broncos Country, let’s ride.

Broncos +3     Under 47.5

San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles 

O/u: 48

Game of the week! Philly has been on an unreal stretch of tough games and this might be their toughest yet. This seems like a let down spot after a tough OT win over the Bills, but the Eagles should know better and I would think they would still get up for this. I think the weather is going to be bad again so I’ll stay away from the total but I’m going to do something dumb for this game. I’ve noticed some slow starts recently for Philly so let’s get CRAZY.

49ers (1H) -1.5       Eagles (game) +3 

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) @ Green Bay Packers

O/u: 42.5

Green Bay made Lions fans pull their paper bags out again and put them on their heads after they thought they were actually going to have a good Thanksgiving for once. Is Jordan Love the guy? He’s shown a lot of flashes of being the long term answer in Green Bay this year. I mean Aaron Rodgers went 6-10 his first full year starting so even being in the hunt is impressive for Love. 

Kansas City has been a team that has fluctuated from being top contenders and just being above average. When will their receivers step up and bail out Mahomes for once? Taylor’s boyfriend can only do so much, but he should be able to do enough to cover in Lambeau. 

Chiefs -6

Other Plays

Outright Dogs