Dick's Picks - Nov. 18-19

By: Richard Johnston  

Look at us, who would’ve imagined a second straight positive week for this very blog? It took us long enough. These picks haven’t gone the way I’ve wanted to but maybe there's light at the end of the tunnel. Ron may have seen his Saudi money dip in his blog lately, but that’s because they’ve paid me to keep giving you, the people, picks for free! So congrats on getting sports washed everyone!

Michigan -4.5  ✅   Penn St Team Total under 20 ✅ - No Harbaugh, no problem. Go ahead and warm up James Franklin’s seat

Washington -8.5 ❌ - Would have covered if not for this bone headed play

Missouri +2 ✅ - Tennessee on the road is a JOKE.

Georgia -11 ✅  Georgia Team Total over 34.5 ✅ - Last week i stated both Ole Miss and Tennessee were frauds and both got dog (dawg) walked

Oregon -15.5 ❌     Over 76 ❌ - Over was dumb but USC looked alive

Saints -3 ❌ - Give me Jameis or give me death

Jaguars +3 ❌ - Hi, I'm an idiot

Ravens -6.5 ❌ - Same old Ravens, bad collapse. Maybe it's the right time for a future?

Steelers -3 ✅ - Tomlin defies the odds

Lions -3 🫷 Over 48.5 ✅ - Chargers do what the Chargers do

Featured Games Record: 7-6-1

This week’s total record:  15-14-1

Overall Record: 81-88-3

This week’s Outright Dog Record: 1-2   -.85u

Overall Outright Dog Record: 8-8    +2.85u

Utah @ Arizona (-1)

O/u: 46

You can’t not love what Arizona has been doing this season. Jedd Fisch has more than exceeded expectations with the Wildcats. They were forced to change QB’s earlier in the year after Jayden de Laura was injured for the year. It’s never good to see guys get hurt but backup Noah Fafita has taken the team to a new level. Wildcat fans are having flashbacks to the old “Desert Swarm” defense that was led by Teddy Bruschi back in the day. I wouldn’t hate an under play either but I think the number might be a smidge too low. Fading Utah on the road again.

Arizona -1

Georgia (-9.5) @ Tennessee

O/u: 58.5

Man these Bulldogs are looking better and better each week, which sucks for me personally, but it’s better for my wallet. I think some of what we’re witnessing has to do with the fact Ole Miss isn’t as good as their record is, but hey, don’t apologize for winning games. Georgia is facing another team that I believe is a more complete team than the Rebels but still overrated. Thinking about all the mock drafts that had Joe Milton as a top 5 pick before the season is quite laughable, I was never a believer in that kind of hype.

To keep it simple, UGA is very good. Tennessee is a fraud. Carson Beck will put a lot of crooked numbers on the board.

UGA -9.5   UGA Team Total over 35.5

Kansas State (-9.5) @ Kansas

O/u: 57.5

The Sunflower State Showdown! In one of the few ranked matchups, the Wildcats travel a little over an hour to get to Lawrence where they’ll take on the Jayhawks. The status of both Kansas QB’s is still in the air and that’s why this spread might look like too much when someone first looks at it. Kansas State has been playing better and more importantly they’ve been getting healthier too. Chris Klieman is 4-0 versus Kansas and has outscored the Jayhawks 175 to 61. None of these games have been close and I think K-State is catching Kansas at a good time again this year.

K-State -9.5

Washington @ Oregon State (-1.5)

O/u: 62.5

Smell that? That’s some stinky cheese waiting for you. I remember being that little rat and taking USC when they went and laid an egg at Notre Dame but I actually DO like the Beavers to get it done on the field. I think stylistically Washington might be in a world of hurt on defense. Oregon State is a rough and tough school that likes to smash their opponent in the mouth with their run game. Damien Martinez is this teams MVP which has allowed DJU to embrace his inner Beaver (||).

Washington is scary of course because Penix and their stable of wide receivers but I think Oregon State out-physicals the Huskies here, clearing a path for cross state rival Oregon, to waltz into the playoff,

Oregon State -1.5   Over 62.5

North Carolina @ Clemson (-7.5)

O/u: 59.5

This is weird right? North Carolina is ranked 20th and yet they had a touchdown dog on the road versus a Clemson team that has looked very unimpressive this year. On in the inverse of the Ole Miss/Tennessee spectrum on teams worse than their record, I think Clemson is much better than what the 4 losses would indicate on the surface level. Slowly but surely Garrett Riley’s offense has begun to take shape and it may be Dabo’s saving grace going into next year.

Of course UNC still has Drake Maye to sling the rock for them but eventually they are going to have to rely on a Gene Chizik defense to get stops to even try to get within this number. Unless Cade Klubnik plays like he has rocks for brains, I think this score easily clears the total and Dabo will be drumming up his Clemson cult in the post game presser.

Clemson -7.5    Over 59.5    Clemson Team Total Over 34.5

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (-1.5)

O/u: 33

Look! Another Steelers game that looks absolutely gross! I think I'm addicted to picking games with this low of a total. With no Deshaun Watson the line has steamed down to 33 but yet the Browns are still favored? The book makers must really hate Pickett versus this daunting Cleveland defense that much. I feel like this is begging for people to take Pittsburgh so for some reason, I’m going to put my faith in Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the rookie out of UCLA, who will be taking over for the time being in Believland.

Browns -1.5   Under 33

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions (-7.5)

O/u: 48

Jared is going to be Goff’in off when the feeble Chicago defense limps into Detroit for this divisional showdown. Justin Fields is going to be back for the Bears so I’m going to be more confident in the over with how Detroit’s defense let LA have whatever they wanted last week. I still want to take the Lions just because of how fun they’ve been this year. So yeah sure, lions and over, for narnia.

Lions -7.5     Over 48

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (-7)

O/u: 39.5

In NEW YORK, NEW YOORK… state. That’s where this game is being played. This seems like a rat line again and the books are begging you to take the points with how the Bills played in primetime last week. I’m a rat. The Bills have broken me and any confidence I have in betting them again this year. I trust the Jets defense WAY more than any other unit that will line it up on Sunday.

Jets +7

Minnesota Vikings @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)

O/u: 42.5

I said Dobbs would turn into a pumpkin last week and he went out and took care of business. It’s a new week and I am once again betting against the Vikings. It has to happen eventually, they can’t keep getting away with this. On the flip side, I’m shocked with how Russell Wilson has looked this past month and I think Sean Payton might be a genius. I like genius’. I’ll bet on the genius.

Broncos -2.5

Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)

O/u: 45.5

GAME OF THE WEEK. SUPER BOWL REMATCH. GAME OF THE YEAR? Oh and I hope you have some tums nearby so you can stomach all the Kelce and Taylor Swift talk that’s going to be rammed down your throat (ayo?). I love watching Jason Kelce play football. It’s an art that only a few can replicate with the way he can use his agility and smarts to turn the Eagles run game from good to great. I’m just over the whole storyline of the brothers and whatever. Yeah I get it, they’re both hall of famers. Yeah I understand Taylor Swift will be attending, OMG. Bad part is, pseudo-wife is excited to watch this game. That might be the first time she has EVER said anything like that.

I think this is a true coin flip but I just have a hunch the Eagles get their revenge.

Eagles +2.5    Over 45.5

Other Plays

Outright Dogs