Dick's Picks - Oct. 13-15

I promise this week will be better (maybe). Last week wasn’t the best to have my first blog go live. There was a good bit of bad beats and just me being dead wrong. I’ll do this every week going forward but here is a recap of that awful Saturday and Sunday.

Mizzou❌+6 & over 63✅- Worst beat of the day, the pick 6 to cover for LSU was gross

 Texas -6.5❌ - just a dumb pick in a rivalry game

Maryland +19.5❌ – Almost the worst beat when OSU kicked to field goal to win by 20

TAMU +2❌ & over 47❌ – Jimbo Fisher does it again! The total landing at 46 was a slap in the face

Kentucky +14.5❌ – Of course the Boo-dawgs decide to wake up when they finally get a SEC night game between the hedges

Jaguars +5.5 ✅& under 48.5✅ – Big brain on this

Steelers +4.5✅ – Galaxy brain play (thanks Ravens receivers)

Colts +2.5✅ – Maybe the Titans flat out STINK

Rams +4.5 ❌– Whoops, Eagles still elite

49ers -3.5✅ – Went to bed in the middle of the second quarter, never a doubt.

Featured Games Record: 6-7

Total Record: 12-17

#8 Oregon @ #7 Washington (-2.5)

O/u: 67.5

The battle of Heisman contenders. If you’re lucky enough like me, you’re holding a Michael Penix ticket (14-1). I believe Oregon is the better and more complete team. The margin between the Ducks defense and the Husky defense is larger than the gap between both offenses. With that in mind, Dan Lanning has recruited his tail off to try to turn Oregon into an SEC type roster. On the flip side, Washington doesn’t have Vita Vea or Joe Tryon walking through the door to help rush the passer or stuff the run. The Ducks are just bigger and stronger up front.

Good Bo Nix will walk into Seattle for this game. The stats from his road starts are mostly from Auburn where Malzahn almost never won on the road and that guy from Boise ruined the program. Nix has turned a new leaf and they’ll quack on in this one.

Oregon +3    Over 67.5

Texas A&M @ #19 Tennessee (-3.5)

O/u: 55.5

Keep cherishing that CBS music SEC fans, there’s only so many more Saturdays you’ll hear the tune while featuring teams from the superior conference. Those weird yell leaders and Jimbo travel to Knoxville to try to get off the mat after being choked out in an old style slobber knocker by Saban & the tahd.

Tennessee is coming off a bye and I’m sure they are licking their chops seeing how Max Johnson performed in lieu of Conor Weigman. The Vols have an underrated pass rush and are getting healthy in all the right positions to see the offense flourish again. Jimbo will keep taking the ball out of Petrino’s hands and I think Heupel would be wise to do the same with Joe Milton. Run the heck out of the ball and only give Bazooka Joe deep shots. Texas A&M’s secondary gave up a ton to Milroe’s vertical passing game last week so look for UT to try to replicate that. Both teams do not finish drives very well and I’m going to rely on that to attack the total as well.

Tennessee -3    Under 55

#10 USC @ #21 Notre Dame (-2.5)

O/u: 60.5

Does this line look right to you? Notre Dame just lost by two scores to Louisville and are a home favorite to the Trojans. I feel like this is a trap to take the Irish but I can’t ignore how bad the ND offense has been. They looked amazing against Navy and have steadily gotten worse each game since. I think USC can load the box and attempt to stop the run game because the ND wide receivers are SO bad that they had to get a guy off the lacrosse team to lineup at wide out. The weather isn’t going to be suitable for the throwing the ball around the yard and I expect ND to try to grind clock to keep 13 on the sidelines.

I may be a mouse taking the cheese but I’ll take USC and the points.

USC +2.5        Under 60.5

#25 Miami @ #12 North Carolina (-3.5)

O/u: 56.5

Oh man Miami. We all know by now the blunder that Cristobal and his OC Shannon Dawson committed that cost Miami the chance to run the table in the ACC. If you haven’t, here it is. Bask in the glory that is poor game management even though these guys get paid millions.

One of the worst losses in CFB history.

Part 1: Leading 20-17 with 35 seconds left, Miami had the ball. Georgia Tech did not have a time-out. One kneel down was all Miami needed to win the game.

Instead, the Hurricanes run a play. GT forces and recovers a fumble. pic.twitter.com/DTxSKolyX7

— The Comeback (@thecomeback) October 8, 2023

Of course after fumbling, karma would only have it that this happens.

OH MY GOD THERES NO WAY pic.twitter.com/eecDlzn1vv

— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) October 8, 2023

Just kneel the ball and escape with a win, that’s all we’re asking for. I’m not sure if the Miami players will have their heads screwed on straight after being scorned by Crisotbal basically throwing up on himself last week. UNC gets another week of Tez Walker being in the offense and I think Drake Maye has remembered who he is. I hate a Gene Chizik bend-and-sometimes break defense but all advantages point towards the Tar Heels.

UNC -3.5     Over 56.5

#18 UCLA @ #15 Oregon State (-3.5)

O/u: 54.5

I don’t have the greatest read on this one. UCLA’s defense has carried them thus far and we’ve seen glimpses of Dante Moore being the next big thing for the Bruins. The other side of this is that the game is in Corvallis, which I think will give Moore issues operating the offense. DJU should do enough to get the Beavs the home win but he’ll revert to his game managing style of play and Damien Martinez will see plenty of touches.

I’m banking on the home team taking care of business here.

Oregon State -3.5

Colts @ Jaguars (-4)

O/u: 44.5

Minshew Mania is back in the mix after AR5 has now exited with injuries in 3 out of 5 games (sorry fantasy owners). The Colts have been a nice surprise and have really spiced up a division that looked almost worse than the NFC South before the year. Jonathan Taylor may start getting some more carries but Zack Moss going beast mode in his absence may be the best thing for them to create a two-headed monster.

The Jaguars finally get to come back home to the states after two consecutive London games. They’ve looked like a top tier squad after dismantling the Falcons and stunning the sleepy Bills. I really like this football team and so much so that I have a Doug Pederson Coach-Of-The-Year ticket.

Colts have a nasty history of playing in Jacksonville as they haven’t won there since 2014 but this is also a Minshew revenge game, so I think they can keep it within the number.

Colts +4

Seahawks @ Bengals (-2.5)

O/u: 45

This is one of the more intriguing games on the Sunday slate. The Seahawks are coming off a bye and the Bengals looked like they have their act together. Somehow Burrow looked healthier after playing through a calf injury in the first month of the season. I really like the Seattle DB’s in Woolen and Weatherspoon but some of that may be recency bias from that Monday night game against the Giants.

It should be a little chilly in Cincinnati, just like that gross skyline chili, but this game may turn into a shootout. I like the Seahawks to come off a bye and beat the Bengals.

Seahawks +2.5

49ers (-10) @ Browns

O/u: 36

With a look at the spread and total, this game looks gross and disgusting. The Deshaun news came out last night that he would be missing another game so this line has jumped 5 whole points. The Niners are a wagon and it may be tough getting things going early after traveling to the east but in the 2^nd half they should be able to pull away. PJ Walker is going to step in for Watson and he showed in Carolina that he can be somewhat competent but like I said, the Niners are a WAGON.

49ers -10

Lions (-3) @ Bucs

O/u: 42.5

Tampa welcomes the red hot Lions to the real bay area. This is going to be the uniform matchup of the week. The red-white Tampa unis just does something to me. If I see those pewter pants I may throw up. All white Lions and the red-white Bucs combos will make me sit 5 inches from my tv and watch this game.

Baker has been surprisingly good and the Bucs defense is still absolute nails. Jared Goff has been even better and they’re the better team. Dan Campbell and the Lions are thinkin’ Soupy.

Lions -3

Cowboys (-2.5) @ Chargers

O/u: 50.5

Finally, a good matchup on Monday night. I know what you’re thinking, the Cowboys just got chewed up and spit out by the 49ers; no way they rebound against a highly powered Chargers team. Call me crazy, insane even, but I think Dak bounces back along with that offense to put up some offensive fireworks. Justin Herbert will get his fair share but it won’t be enough as long as Brandon Staley is still the head coach there. Also, I LOVE the over here.

Cowboys -2.5     Over 50.5

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