Dick's Picks - Oct. 21-23

By: Richard Johnston @fearless_sage9

PUMPED for the slate this entire weekend. Big matchups in both college and pro ball. The air is crisp when you walk outside, there’s brown water in your cup, and football is on the tv. Nothing gets better than this. Here’s a quick recap of last week:

Oregon +3  🫷  Over 67.5 ✅– I’ll take a push, hopefully we’ll see this matchup again but for the PAC-12 title game

Tennessee -3 ✅  Under 55 ✅– This was an ugly game. Glad Jimbo put up another stinker

USC +2.5 ❌  Under 60.5 ❌ – I’m a little mouse and I got caught trying to take the cheese

UNC -3.5 ✅ Over 56.5 ✅– Miami tried it’s best to sneak it the backdoor, also shoutout Tez Walker for the 3 touchdowns

Oregon St -3.5 ✅ – Dante Moore acted like a freshman on the road again, maybe next year UCLA

Colts +4 ❌– Over thought the Minshew game

Seahawks +2.5 ❌– Seahawks had plenty of chances to win this game, just didn’t do it

49ers -10 ❌– I was weary of this game before Watson was out, but I figured there wouldn’t be a chance for the niners to lay an egg against PJ Walker, oops!

Lions -3 ✅ – Bucs still losing in the creamsicles, a tradition unlike any other

Cowboys -2.5 ✅   Over 50.5 ❌– Dak actually looked good but these were two incompetent coaching staffs failing their very talented teams

Featured Games Record:   8-6-1

This Week’s Total Record:  15-15-1

Overall Record:  27-32-1

#7 Penn State @ #3 Ohio State (-4.5)

O/u: 45.5

Two top ten teams step into the horseshoe for the big noon kickoff game. It’s a shame that this isn’t a night kick but this is the world we live in where tv companies rule the college landscape. The Buckeyes have won 6 straight over Penn St and 10 out of the last 11. Kyle McCord still hasn’t looked like the next great QB but it would be pretty hard to follow up Justin Fields and CJ Stroud. McCord may never hit that high of ceiling but when you have Marvin Harrison Jr, you just have to give your guy a chance.

James Franklin has been pretty good against the spread in this rivalry despite not getting the straight up win. Guy knows the spread and makes sure his donors are at least happy by keeping it within the number. Drew Allar has been efficient with the short to intermediate pass game despite critics complaining about the lack of vertical throws. So far they’ve been able to man handle each opponent and they probably have been holding something from the public in anticipation of being undefeated going into this weekend. Franklin will keep this in the number again or finally give the Nittany Lion faithful that coveted win over Ohio State.

Penn State +4.5

#17 Tennessee @ #11 Alabama (-8.5)

O/u: 48.5

The 3^rd Saturday in October is here, and what a nickname for a rivalry. Very creative from two very very smart fan bases. Tennessee won me a couple of bets last week but with no thanks to Joe Milton. He was horrid versus the Aggies. Luckily, Jalen Milroe also stinks. Both QB’s can’t throw anything intermediate and they are practically the same player except Milroe is shiftier and can utilize his legs better. The Tennessee defense continues to impress me and we all know about the big bad Bama D (huh?). We won’t be seeing the high scoring game we got in Knoxville last year but it will still be close and competitive. The mindset you need to be in is that you’re watching a game from 20 years ago and the tv is still in standard definition. It might look ugly but Heupel should scheme things up enough to keep Tennessee within striking distance.

Tennessee +8.5     Under 48.5

#14 Utah @ #18 USC (-7)

O/u: 53.5

USC got smacked last week so we’re guessing they bounce back in a big way against the Utes at home, right? Wrong. Even as bad as Utah’s offense is, they should still be able to put up a fight on the road. I don’t trust either QB but then again, Sam Hartman didn’t have to do too much to stomp the Trojans. I don’t think ND had a scoring drive with over 40 yards the entire game. Maybe Caleb Williams will just mail it in until the NFL draft now? I think he’s mentally done this season and if the Trojans endure another loss, I’d put him watch for coming up with some reason he can’t play the rest of the year.

Whittingham loves this spot as the underdog and I do too, even away from Utah. I got the under at 56.5 earlier this week but I don’t know if I would play it at what it’s currently at.

Utah +7

#16 Duke @ #4 Florida State (-14.5)

O/u: 49.5

First, imagine Dick Vitale yelling, “THE DUKIES!!!” Now, imagine Speckles the horse (I know its Renegade) running onto the field and seeing the chief throw the spear in the ground. Which is the better visual? Yeah, I agree, it’s the cool horse. Anyway, we still aren’t sure if Riley Leonard is healthy enough to go for Duke with the ankle injury he sustained versus Notre Dame. Even if he does suit up and go, he can’t possibly be 100%. The Duke defense has been very good and Mike Elko is a mastermind for what he’s done. Personally, I am happy to see him leave Texas A&M so that Auburn didn’t have to face him anymore. Duke can only hang on for so long and I think Jordan Travis and his All-American caliber receivers are too much for the Blue Devils.

Florida State -14.5

Toledo (-1.5) @ Miami (OH)

O/u: 49

MACtion has made its way onto my featured games list this week and it’s not because of the lack of selections. This is just a really big game going forward for the conference. If this is a sick game to breakdown, then buddy I invented covid in a lab. I think the wrong team is favored here and I trust Brett Gabbert (Blaine Gabbert’s little brother) over Toldeo’s Dequan Finn. Both teams have beat up on the bottom of the MAC and admittedly this could be a coin flip. BUT, just trust me bro.

Miami (OH) +1.5

Lions @ Ravens (-3)

O/u: 43

This is the “Are you Forreal” Bowl this week. If these teams want to be serious contenders they will find a way to squeak out a win. I love these new Lions but seeing the line be this far to Baltimore scares me. The Ravens still look bad on offense but getting the Lions secondary on the schedule might be just what the doctor ordered. I still love the Lions in this spot but also love the over.

Another thing, both of these cities just suck. I couldn’t think of two worse cities to go visit.

Lions +3   Over 43

Browns (-2.5) @ Colts

O/u: 40.5

Cleveland pulled the upset of the year last week in a total let down spot for the Niners. With the way this defense is playing they look like a serious threat to take the AFC North crown if they get a tiny bit of help from the offense. The Colts let me down in the Minshew revenge game but that has more the do with Jacksonville being that good. I can’t expect PJ Walker to put up another manageable game so I’m going to trust that the Colts bounce back and win this game. It might be a sight for sore eyes like last week’s Browns game so I’ll also be taking the under.

Colts +2.5    Under 40.5

Falcons @ Bucs (-2.5)

O/u: 37

Alright who wants to win this division? Nobody? That what it seems like. Ridder and Mayfield both put up pathetic performances last week that ultimately lost their teams the game. I’m afraid we are looking at another rock fight but if that’s the case I have to go with Baker. For a prop bet, maybe sprinkle ATL or TB defensive anytime touchdown, I think either QB is capable of tossing a pick six at any moment.

Bucs -2.5      Under 37

Chargers @ Chiefs (-5.5)

O/u: 48.5

GREAT uniform game. The blues, the reds, it feels so good on the eyeballs. People love to say that the Chiefs don’t cover spreads but yet they are 4-2 ATS while the Chargers are 1-3-1 in the same metric. This will make a person want to ride the wave with Chiefs Kingdom but when you look at how Justin Herbert has done versus the Chiefs, he is 5-1 ATS but 2-4 straight up. The Chargers are coming off of a bad loss to the Cowboys and some are asking if Brandon Staley is coaching for his job, I think yes. Look for LA to keep it close.

Chargers +5.5

Dolphins @ Eagles (-2.5)

O/u: 51.5

After you’ve sat on your coach for 8 hours and watched football all day, I’m going to guess your significant other nagged you for most of it to either go to a pumpkin patch or pick apples, you need to look at them and say, “I got one more in me.” This is must see ball that no man should miss if they consider themselves a fan of the sport. This is another classic spot to take the home team to bounce back after a disappointing loss. I like Jalen Hurts to put the team on his back and out play his Alabama counterpart in Tua. Tyreek might get his usual touches and stats but if there was a game for the Eagles pass rush to show up and show out, this is it. The over is so enticing here but Philadelphia might play keep away and chug along with D’Andre Swift eating the clock so that’s a stay away for me.

Eagles -2.5

Other Plays

Outright Dogs: Until I come up with a better name, this is what it is. I’ll be giving out a few dogs I like outright each week going forward!