Dick's Picks - Oct. 28-30

By: Richard Johnston @fearless_sage9

My bookie loves me, what can I say. I had fun watching football but I did not have fun checking my bets all weekend. That's the way she goes sometimes. I would LOVE to provide all my faithful and loyal readers a winning card this week, and that is what I’m going to do. IF I don’t go over .500 this week on both college and NFL picks, you, the consumer, will get my card next week completely free of charge. Zip, nada, zero. Completely free. Cheers to the weekend and here’s the weekly recap.

Penn State +4.5❌– James Franklin let down special

Tennessee +8.5❌     Under 48.5❌ – Tale of 2 Halves, we saw good Joe Milton and bad Joe Milton. Is Jalen Milroe better than we give him credit for?

Utah +7✅– Pig Farmers are cool too. USC officially on quit watch.

Florida State -14.5 ✅ – Duke acted like the little engine that could until it couldn’t. Shoutout Rick for the Noles live bet in the second half.

Miami (OH) +1.5❌ – Gabbert was taken off the field in an air cast in what looked like an ugly injury. We flipped the coin and we got it wrong.

Lions +3 ❌   Over 43 ✅ – Once again I’m a little mouse and got caught in the trap. At least the Lions were SO bad that the over hit.

Colts +2.5  ✅  Under 40.5❌ – Who’s the idiot who took the under? Colts should’ve won outright but maybe the Browns are for real, they keep finding a way to win games.

Bucs -2.5  ❌  Under 37 ✅ – Despite Desmond Ridder’s best effort, the Falcons squeaked out a win to find out who is the worst-best team in the league.

Chargers +5.5 ❌– Betting the Chargers this year is like writing your own death sentence. T’s and P’s to anyone who had the over.

Eagles -2.5 ✅– I’m just happy I can be right on a pick for once. I saw the script in my head and it went exactly how I imagined. I love me some tush push.

Featured Games Record: 6-8

This week’s total Record: 12-16

Overall Record: 39-48-1

Outright Dog Record: 4-1 +4.9u     (doesn’t count towards overall record)

#1 Georgia (-14.5) vs Florida

O/u: 48.5

For the lack of creativity that we saw last week with rivalry game nicknames, Georgia-Florida is a favorite of mine. The World’s Largest Cocktail Party is a bucket list game. While I have not had the fortune to make it to Jacksonville, I’ve seen plenty of friends go binge drink and have the times of their lives in the armpit of the south.

Florida’s win total on the year was at 5.5 and I am one of the many smart people that took their under. That was dumb, stupid even. Graham Mertz has been an effective game manager to a lot of people’s surprise. I know Harry has been posting Jordan Travis slander in favor of Mertz (what a loser, Travis is so much better) but Florida is going to lean on the run game to set up their nice package of play action throws. If Mertz can hit 2-3 explosive passes they should stay in the number and keep Georgia honest about filling the box to stop the run. Florida’s future is very bright with the way Napier recruits so we might see a true top 10 team in Gainesville in 2-4 years.

Florida +14.5

#8 Oregon (-6.5) @ #13 Utah

O/u: 47.5

Bo Nix on the road, Bo Nix on the road, Bo Nix on the road. You can repeat that phrase to yourself all you want but it won’t change the fact he’s reinvented himself. I’m taking the same stance that I did with the Washington game and as long as he has on an Oregon uniform, it is an entirely different player. The Ducks are getting a few players back that sat out last week due to injuries in the game in Seattle and I think that’s why you saw Wazzu put up a decent fight in the first half in Eugene.

The pig farmer story was cool and Whittingham had a funny postgame comment about it but let’s face the facts, the USC defense is BAD. While Utah finally showed some life on offense since they announced Cam Rising being out for the year, I think some, to a lot, of that can be credited to Alex Grinch’s inability to put a competitive product on the field. At one point early in the year Utah’s offense looked like Iowa just in different colors. That’s how bad it was, and it’s supposed to be magically fixed now? This matchup isn’t great for the Utes so I feel more comfortable laying the points with the Ducks and also taking the over since Bryson Barnes showed that Utah could contribute to the total a little.

Oregon -6.5   Over 47.5

#20 Duke @ #18 Louisville (-4.5)

O/u: 46.5

THE DUKIES! They’re back on our featured games this week after suffering a back breaking loss to the Noles. Louisville is coming off a bye so Jeff Brohm might be cooking up something for the Blue Devils. This pick relies on the availability of Duke’s QB Riley Leonard since he’s the straw that stirs their drink. If he isn’t playing then I would probably stay away from this game but since momma Johnston didn’t raise a coward, I’m all in on the dukies.

Duke +5.5

#21 Tennessee (-3.5) @ Kentucky

O/u: 51.5

The Vols take their lack of talents to the bluegrass state in a battle of mid and to see who gets to go to Tampa or Orlando for their bowl game. Both teams are 5-2 which would make you think they’re pretty darn good. They are, what I like to call, frogs. Frogs is just frauds but it makes it a little more fun when they look at you confused when you say.

Joe Milton turned into a pumpkin in the second half against Bama and there were no answers to be found. Stuff the box and make Milton be spectacular. That should be the game plan against him for the rest of the year. When it’s scripted up for him, he shows flashes of greatness. When it’s deep into the game, not so much. Kentucky is also coming off a bye and they remember how the beat down that Tennessee gave them in Neyland last year (44-6). Look for Ray Davis to have another monster day and Leary to do just enough to have Kentucky with a chance to win at the end. It’s not basketball season yet in Big Blue Nation.

Kentucky +3.5

Colorado @ #23 UCLA (-15.5)

O/u: 62.5

UCLA finally made the switch at quarterback to Ethan Garbers in last week’s display of dominance over Stanford. We could look at common opponents between UCLA and Colorado here to see what pick we want since they both played the Tree recently, which is a little lazy and isn’t that simple but let’s not over complicate this. UCLA 42-7 win compared to a Colorado 2OT 46-43 loss after being up 29-0. The good thing for the Buffs is that they got a whole week during the bye to get chewed out by the coaching staff and put their nose to the grindstone and get better, right? Oh wait did I see Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter sitting courtside at the Nuggets-Lakers game this week? You’d think after embarrassing themselves they’d be focused on UCLA a little more. Especially when the Bruins have real deal all-americans on their defense. This is a little bit of a passion pick, but if Colorado’s O-Line hasn’t fixed some of their problems yet, Shedeur is going to be eating grass most of the game.

UCLA -15.5    Over 62.5

Jaguars (-2.5) @ Steelers

O/u: 41

The Jags are red hot so it makes it complicated to pick this game. Except it isn’t complicated. MIKE TOMLIN IS A HOME UNDERDOG. I don’t care who is on the Steelers, they could me at quarterback for all I care (would be dope tho). This is a game you just see the line and bet it, don’t over think it.

Steelers +2.5

Rams @ Cowboys (-6.5)

O/u: 45.5

I smell more frogs. Well, the Cowboys always have that stench on them and I’m not sure if LA had enough expectations to be called frogs. Either way, whichever team loses this game can flush their season down the drain. Dallas may lose but go on to win 10-11 games. It doesn’t matter, they won’t win a playoff game. Sean McVay’s kid listened to him and was born during the week rather than on a Sunday so I’m thinking McVay will call the game of his life and Stafford will be stuntin’ on the Dallas Star.

Rams +6.5

Falcons (-2.5) @ Titans

O/u: 35.5

Another smelly stinky game. This is right where Vrabel wants his team. He wants people to think his team is bad (they are), and he wants everyone to doubt the guys in two-tone blue. They just traded away veteran safety Kevin Byard to the Eagles so are they should be on full tank mode now but like I said, this is such a Vrabel spot it might be my best bet this week.

Titans +2.5   Under 35.5

Browns @ Seahawks (-3.5)

O/u: 38.5

I’ve bet against Cleveland two weeks in a row and I’ve gone 1-1 during that span. We need a rubber match but that is not the only reason I’m taking Seattle to cover. Happy Halloween, PJ Walker finally turns into a pumpkin while massage boy keeps getting his shoulder rubbed down on the sidelines. The Browns have not faced this good of a team on the road yet this year and Geno should be a lot healthier coming off the bye.

Seahawks -3.5

Bengals @ 49ers (-4.5)

O/u: 43.5

What’s wrong with these 49ers? Losing two straight to the Browns and Vikings, both away games, now come home to welcome a fresh and healthy Cincinnati team looking to get their season back on track. This might be another frog game but if the Bengals lose, they’d be in deep crap since they get Buffalo at home next week. I’m officially declaring this a must-win for Joe Burrow and the Bengals.

Bengals +4.5

Other Plays

Outright Dogs