Dick's Picks - Oct. 6-9

By: Richard Johnston @fearless_sage9

Hello RGT Universe!

Most of you may know me for my shenanigans on the bird app and this may not come as a surprise but I’ve decided to embark on the journey of doing this weekly blog that will give you WINNERS (maybe) and you make you RICH (probably not). Thanks to Ron for being a gracious host and allowing me to kill time when I don’t
want to do my job at work.

A little background on my “career” as a sports bettor; I’ve been in the game for about 2 full years now. I like to get in the trenches and go to war when toe meets leather on Saturdays at 12:00 eastern. I’m no stranger to have 20+ plays for college ball and I bask in the chaos that ensues.

I believe my addiction started in Kollege when I become my own book and made odds for a D3 college golf tournament, real sicko type stuff honestly. I worked harder on that than anything else I had done that semester with all the research that went into it. Maybe it might’ve started when covid struck and me and my roommates were so bored that we had the CPU play each other on Madden and made imaginary spreads and totals and were betting each other on them. Either way, I’m here to stay in the betting world.

Typically I would like to give you 10 picks between the most intriguing college and NFL games going on this weekend. I’ll be trying to give a little analysis on these 10 picks and if I have more (I will definitely have more) then I will give analysis when I see fit.

Without Further ado, let’s get into the college slate.

23 LSU (-6) @ #21 Missouri

O/u: 64.5
The battle of the tigers heads to CoMo as the alpha nerd Eli Drinkwitz welcomes LSU who is coming off a hilariously bad defensive showing against Ole Miss. People down in Baton Rouge are warming up that seat of Brian Kelly for some reason even though he’s done nothing but exceed so far. One slip shouldn’t cost the man his job. The same cannot be said for Matt House. That defense stinks baby, specifically the secondary. Brady Cook has impressed so far this year and the emergence of Luther Burden has proven a trustworthy combo that can exploit what Ole Miss exposed last week. I think Drinkwitz will dial this up and both teams will be putting numbers on the board.

MIZZOU +6 & Over 63

12 Oklahoma vs #3 Texas

O/u: 60.5
Another edition of the Red River SHOOTOUT will take place this weekend as fans from all over will do their part in raising the obesity rate in the US at Texas state fair where fried everything will be available (I’m jealous). The Longhorns are still riding high after the win at Alabama and have taken care of business. The old Texas would have already slipped up to a far inferior opponent by now. Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t been as impressive as we’ve seen in the past and while they are undefeated and Gabriel is playing well, he isn’t even the best QB on the roster. If things go sideways for OU’s offense in the first half, look for the switch to Jackson Arnold. All Longhorns here. I would trust the better QB in Ewers and that nasty d-line to takeover.

Texas -6.5

Maryland @ #4 Ohio State (-19.5)

O/u: 57
Y’all remember Tua’s little brother who was supposed to be better than him? Yeah he’s been balling this year at Maryland with former Bama OC Mike Locksley. If you look at Maryland’s schedule, it doesn’t seem very hard and the two Big Ten games have been against Michigan St and Indiana, both of whom will find themselves battling for second to last in the conference in front of Northwestern. Taulia is coming off a 350 yard and 5 touchdown performance and while he almost certainly won’t be doing that versus Ohio State, BUT I think he’ll do enough to stay inside the number. Ohio State hasn’t shown me anything that screams they can cover a spread that big against a competent team. The stud receivers can’t do anything if McCord can’t get them the ball.

I can only wish Ryan Day shoots another WWE style promo after this one. Preferably at Lou Holtz again.

Maryland +19.5

11 Alabama (-2) @ Texas A&M

O/u: 47
Over the years this game has become appointment television but for everything not on the field. Alabama’s kicked the hell out of the Aggies since Johnny Manziel left until 2 years ago. The shocking Zach Calzada game happened (yes, it happened), and even last year with Haynes King they were able to hang around. Jalen Milroe started this game last year and only attempted 19 passes. I think you might see more of the same from the Bama offense where they will want to utilize his legs and only allow him to take deep shots. Against Mississippi State, Alabama’s offense was still a mess as 23% of their plays were broken outright.

The Texas A&M defense is rated 1st in the country in Havoc Rate, which is the total number of passes defended, forced fumbles, and tackles for loss divided by total number of plays. Milroe is an explosive athlete but sheesh does he get in trouble when he doesn’t see his reads. I hate Jimbo and the trio of him, Petrino, and Dj Durkin is probably the most controversial group of coaches out there, but I like the Aggies at home.

Alabama's offense was again a bit of a mess as 13/56 plays were broken outright. Staying true to a recent trend, the Tide hammered Duo Dives and IZ Bluff Read (43% Play Share). Thanks to explosives, Dagger and Yankee shot finished among their top gainershttps://t.co/RDzIdozcnA pic.twitter.com/KkKzL6QbPw

— Clark Brooks (@SEC_StatCat) October 4, 2023

Texas A&M +2 & Over 47

20 Kentucky @ #1 Georgia (-14.5)

O/u: 47.5
Kentucky is 5-0. Huh? Yes, Kentucky is 5-0 for the first time since 2007 after giving Florida the business last week. They absolutely looked like they were sand bagging through the first month only to unleash they’re running attack on the Gators. Devin Leary hasn’t been the all-SEC QB I expected him to be but you are what your record says.

Kirby Smart has come out this week stating that every SEC should be ranked. We all know what game he’s trying to play with the voters and the national media with the putrid schedule they are playing this year. I get it, some of that isn’t his fault with the cancelled Oklahoma game but still, not great! I actually think Carson Beck has played well and has gotten some undeserved criticism from those stupid barking fans.

If something seems off this year, it has been the regression of the UGA defense. Regression is a strong word but two things can be right at the same time, their defense is noticeably worse but they are still the top squad in the conference. Sorry UGA fans, your defense isn’t going to set records. Go cry.

I think UK can keep it close but really I’m just betting on UGA still not covering a spread this year.

Kentucky +14.5

NFL BREAKDOWN

Jaguars @ Bills (-5.5)

O/u: 48.5
Jags are back at home in London and what do they get as a reward for beating up
Desmond Ridder? Josh freaking Allen. Buffalo has gotten back on track after the
debacle of a game versus the Jets on that opening Monday night. I’ve been impressed with TLaw so far this year but for my fantasy team’s sake, I would like to see more. Buffalo’s defense has been stout but with this game being played in Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, I’d suspect thered be some slow grass out there.

Jaguars +5.5 Under 48.5

Ravens (-4.5) @ Steelers

O/u: 38.                                                                                                                             Thank god we don’t have to see this on a primetime slot. I still believe Kenny Pickett can be a solid NFL QB, but what is Mike Tomlin thinking? Matt Canada gets MORE responsibilities? That tells me that if it doesn’t get better then Canada will be shown the door sooner rather than later. No way the pick isn’t Baltimore to cover right?

Wrong.

Tomlin as a home divisional dog will once again prevail in this afternoon rivalry game.

Steelers +4.5

Titans (-2.5) @ Colts

O/u: 42.5
This line has swung allll the way to the Titans almost being a field goal favorite on the road. Indy opened up as a 1 point favorite so seeing the line movement is scary to see. BUT, has it swung too far? I think it has. I nailed the Colts when it opened so I will stick with that pick and I will gladly take the home divisional dog again.

Colts +2.5

Eagles (-4.5) @ Rams

O/u: 49.5
The Eagles have followed up their run to the Super Bowl by starting 4-0 and being right there with the 49ers as NFC favorites. I’m obsessed with the Eagles offensive line play, it’s like p*rn to me. Watching five men act as one and go out and perform like that really gets me going. I’m going to be interested to see how Landon Dickerson will do in one-on-one situations when Aaron Donald is lined up over him. Dickerson held his own against pro bowler Johnathon Allen last week but I’d like to see him do it again.Ok enough line talk, I get it, no one cares until the QB is on his back.

I think Stafford still has some juice left in him and I don’t like Philly traveling out west for this matchup after being in an overtime game. Philly on real upset alert this week.

Rams +4.5

Cowboys @ 49ers (3.5)

O/u: 45
This is the game of the week. Dallas has rebounded back to the top of the league after their slip up to those frisky Arizona Cardinals by pummeling the Patriots and Mr.Dui Mac Jones. The Niners just played those same Cardinals and stuffed them in a locker. Arizona made it a little closer coming out of the half it was never in doubt that San Fran would runaway with it.

More offensive line talk. Dallas should be getting future hall of famers Zack Martin and Tyron Smith back for the game on Sunday night so that should be a big boost for the boys going aginast the likes of Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and Javon Hargrave. I don’t like the matchup for Dak Prescott but this game should not be as embarrassing as the playoff loss was for the Cowboys.

49ers -3.5

If you made it this far into the blog, first, thank you because this is probably too long. Below are some plays I have already locked in so feel free to dive into the numbers and please come back next week to see how bad I did!

CFB:
Kansas St -11.5
Nebraska/Illinois under 43
Wisconsin/Rutgers over 44
Purdue +2.5
NIU/Akron under 43

Texas State/Louisiana over 68
Florida/Vanderbilt under 51.5
USF/UAB over 68.5
Southern Miss -1.5
Arkansas/Ole Miss over 62.5
TCU/Iowa State under 52.5
Oregon St -9

NFL:
Falcons -1.5
Patriots PK
Saints/Patriots under 39.5
Jets +2.5
Packers +1